Several politicians have got into hot water for promoting and repeating misleading data in recent months, particularly about migration and crime. There have been calls for the government and police forces to be more transparent about the figures to tackle misinformation and hysteria.
Here are some of the high-profile claims that have been disputed or debunked.
Are foreign nationals responsible for 40% of sexual crime in London?
Conservative Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, said on Radio 4’s Today programme on Monday that 40% of sexual crimes in London last year were committed by foreign nationals.
The claim was sourced from the Centre for Migration Control (CMC), a thinktank and blog that describes its purpose as “controlling and reducing migration to Britain”. It is run by the Reform UK activist Robert Bates.
CMC’s claims come from the Metropolitan police’s response to a freedom of information request. The Met issued a breakdown of the number of people who had been proceeded against – ie brought before a court – for sexual offences by nationality. This does not mean they have been found guilty of committing the offence as Jenrick said. For example, there were 14,242 defendants brought to court for sexual offences at magistrates courts in England and Wales in 2024, but 8,098 convictions, according to Ministry of Justice statistics.
“Some of the data we’re seeing is very striking,” Jenrick also said. “Afghans and Eritrean nationals are 20 times more likely to be convicted of a sexual crime than a British national.” The statistic about Afghans has been repeated by Reform UK’s chair, Zia Yusuf.
This is a muddled figure that also came from the CMC, after it submitted freedom of information requests to the MoJ. It is based on population statistics from 2021 but data on offences covering the years between 2021 and 2023. That means the statistic is likely to be based on a significant underestimate of the number of Afghan and Eritrean nationals in the UK – meaning the comparison with British rates is unlikely to be 20 times as high. Immigration to the UK from Afghanistan has risen significantly since 2021 because of the Taliban’s return to power, while Eritrean migration has also risen due to wars in Eritrea, Sudan and Ethiopia.
The Guardian contacted Jenrick for comment.
Are the police protecting illegal migrants working for Deliveroo?
Nick Timothy, the Conservative MP for West Suffolk, deleted a post on X this week that accused the Metropolitan police of “facilitating illegal working”. He had shared a photo that appeared to show police officers escorting a Deliveroo driver through a crowd of protesters outside a hotel. The original post claimed to depict how “an illegal Deliveroo worker is literally getting a full police escort”.
The Met replied that “this person was delivering to the hotel, they were not being accommodated there. There is no evidence to suggest they were working illegally. They were surrounded and intimidated by those gathered outside and officers intervened to make sure they got away safely.”
The context is that companies including Deliveroo, Just Eat and Uber Eats have committed to tighten security checks after reports some asylum seekers were working illegally as couriers.
Are one in 12 people in London illegal migrants?
Earlier this year, there was a controversy over a Telegraph front page report that said as many as one in 12 people living in London were illegal immigrants. The story included quotes from Chris Philp, the Conservative shadow home secretary, who called the figures “deeply alarming” and said it was “totally unacceptable to have these numbers of illegal immigrants in the UK”.
The Telegraph and several other newspapers had to issue corrections for misrepresenting the findings in several ways. The one in 12 statistic was based on an unpublished study commissioned by Thames Water to measure the demand for water supply. The study concluded that there could be between 390,355 and 585,533 irregular – not illegal – migrants in and around London. The Telegraph used the higher figure and divided it by the 7 million population living in specific “water resource zones”, rather than the 9 million population of London.
Most importantly, the Thames Water study was seeking to estimate the number of people who use water that are not in official statistics so included not just migrants but those with second homes, visitors and tourists. It also included people given indefinite leave to remain, as well as some British-born children of migrants with irregular status.
The most recent official estimates for the number of irregular migrants in the UK date from 2017. The Pew Research Center said the number was between 800,000 to 1.2 million, while the Greater London Authority’s central estimate for the whole of the UK was 674,000 – going up to 809,000 when including UK-born children of unauthorised migrants.
Why are we talking about this now?
At a press conference on Monday, Nigel Farage told TV crews that he would discuss an open criminal investigation – the alleged rape of a child. But he said there would be nothing in the press conference that would go against contempt of court laws. Two men have been charged in connection with the alleged crime.
When an alleged perpetrator has been charged, there are strict rules about what can be reported, to prevent prejudicing and potentially collapsing a trial. However, the leader of Warwickshire county council, George Finch, later made a number of references, including referring to the men as “criminals” when they have not been found guilty.
Farage then defended Finch when questioned as to whether he had broken contempt laws, saying it was “good” that he had become “slightly emotional”.
The issue of naming the race of alleged perpetrators has been in the public eye since a baseless social media conspiracy theory surrounding Axel Rudakubana, the Southport murderer. After he killed three young children in July 2024, it was purported on social media that authorities were covering up his true place of birth. Rudakubana, who was born in Cardiff to Rwandan parents, was falsely portrayed in a variety of social media posts as being a Muslim asylum seeker.
