Want an AI-proof job?
Rethink your plans to pursue a career in book keeping, marketing or programming and consider instead a job in nursing, construction or hospitality.
In a major new report, Jobs and Skills Australia modelled the potential impact of artificial intelligence on the workforce, and found reasons to be optimistic about the future for workers in a world transformed by AI.
The JSA’s commissioner, Barney Glover, said the doomsday predictions about the end of work as we know it are overblown. Still, the impact will be huge.
“The overarching message is that almost all occupations will be augmented by AI. It doesn’t make a difference which sector you are in, or at what skill level: you will be influenced by AI,” Glover said.
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In the most comprehensive research of its kind in Australia, the JSA assessed occupations according to what degree the tasks could be automated or augmented by artificial intelligence.
“Many clerical tasks – that were not affected by previous waves of automation – could now be undertaken in large part by Gen AI,” the report found.
It then modelled future employment growth across occupations out to the middle of the century, and compared those forecasts to a world with no AI.
The report found office clerks, receptionists, bookkeepers, sales, marketing and public relations professionals, business and systems analysts and programmers would lose the most employment by 2050.
In contrast, the occupations where employment would gain the most were cleaners and laundry workers, public administration and safety, business administration managers, construction and mining labourers, and hospitality workers.
But a key finding of the report was that AI was much more likely to change, rather than replace, work.
“Nearly half of all workers are currently in occupations with low automation and medium augmentation scores, suggesting the occupation would more likely experience change rather than disruption,” the report said.
More jobs, just different ones
JSA modelled employment growth in three scenarios where AI is adopted and embedded at different rates between now and 2050.
It found that AI would lead to slower employment growth through the 2030s, but faster growth through the next decade. In all three scenarios, there were more Australian jobs by 2050 in a world with AI, than without.
The analysis “suggests we may not see the most significant employment effects for a decade, which could accord with the time taken for deeper adoption and related structural changes,” the report said.
While the adoption of AI remains in its very early stages, some jobs have already been devastated by the introduction of the economy.
The JSA said it had heard about the “significant” drop in work for voice actors thanks to GenAI, with one talent agency telling the commission that demand for narration for content videos had collapsed by 80%.
There are reports that employers are rolling out AI to complete the low level tasks that once would have been the domain of university graduates, although there is not yet widespread evidence of the phenomenon.
Big businesses are embracing AI, with an impact on workers.
CBA recently axed dozens of call centre jobs, replacing them with chatbots.
In May, Telstra’s chief executive officer, Vicki Brady, said “AI efficiencies” would allow it to shrink its workforce by 2030, although the telco giant denied that last month’s announcement of 550 job cuts was the result of the technology.
No time to waste
Given the rapid evolution of AI, Glover said there was a “sense of urgency” when it came to taking steps now to give Australians of all ages the tools and skills they needed to thrive in an AI-augmented workplace.
He said it would require a “national leadership framework”, led by the commonwealth and including all levels of government.
“Let’s make sure the education and training sector is geared up for this and ready. AI is a foundational skill now – everyone is going to be some form of ‘prompt engineer’.
“We want to future proof our young people, so let’s give them the skills they need.
“We need the cognitive and critical thinking skills. That’s why it’s critical to support the humanities and social sciences, which have developed these critical thinking skills over centuries.”
Glover agreed with the ACTU that there was a “strong argument” that employers should work with their staff in “co-designing” the implementation of AI in the workplace.
“The very best way to get the very best outcome for workers and employers is to bring workers in. This has got to be a positive way of moving forward.
“We don’t touch on it in our report, but these are things the economic roundtable [next week] can debate and I hope they do.”
